PVXchange founder Martin Schachinger explained that PV module prices will depend on the national and international demand trends of the forthcoming months, and the results will range from increases to stagnation or a continuation of their downward trend. Almost anything is likely, but anything is for sure.
First, the positives: During the first half of the year, the module prices of the high-efficiency products stabilized, as well as those of the other typologies. Even the all-black look modules, back in the January price survey, are also registering zero price variation.
The rising trend in lower-end costs illustrated in the graph and barometer below owes its inspiration in part to refreshed typology segments. Technological advancements have moved the tipping point between high-efficiency modules and mainstream modules to 22.5%.
The bad news now: As forecasted in December 2024, product availability continues to decrease, most noticeably for high-performance PV modules. These modules, typically held for large commercial projects or special customers, are not available.
Free stock is generally the result of a project delay or cancellation. The short-term use of some inverters and storage facilities is also not smooth, forcing suppliers to advise on alternatives. After-holiday-season logistics difficulties and halted production restarts from the manufacturers further aggravate the issue. Surprisingly, the Chinese manufacturers, in their attempt to negate detrimental competition and excessive production in Europe, have fabricated false shortages.
The year-end 2024 crash made the equation even more difficult. In November and December, suppliers liquidated stock from their warehouses at discounted prices in their balance sheet cleansing exercises, leaving the market oversupplied with cut-price goods. With the first quarter being relatively quiet, the requirement for new stock is equally poor in Germany. There, concerns about the likelihood of government intervention and the global consequences of Donald Trump’s reelection have slowed momentum.
The module cost trend – rising, remaining static, or falling – is largely dependent on home and export demand in the months ahead. Pretty much anything is possible, with very little that is certain. Module price index fluctuations make the conditions even stringent. High-power modules, such as 440 W and 575 W output modules, which were previously high-cost products, are now commonplace. For certain output types, such as 450 W, 585 W, and 700 W, in specific formats, the high-efficiency module barrier now applies. Data sheets of many, then, are used in reporting efficiency to omit the frame area, thereby introducing an error. Suppliers almost always quote high levels of performance, even when the production tech is the same.
The reclassification of the modules has shifted expenses. The January mainstream module price, for instance, now encompasses several hundred performance grades that would previously be in the high-efficiency group. The mainstream indicator now indicates fewer low-price modules, and the volatility is evident from the companion diagram. With previous methods of computation, the jump in mainstream price looks less extreme, but high-efficiency prices have refrained from declining in moderation.
All-black modules, which have been absent from the price index since April 2022, have a marginal price premium. Until the current time, such modules had zero price premium relative to black-and-white modules. Respecting homeowner solar requests for appearance, through consumer demand, a several euro-cent-per-watt-peak price difference is achieved. In the glass-glass module case, which is produced, in most cases, bifacially, such premiums result from the appearance achieved through back glass printing, rather than production costs.
WTP is used for black modules due to the selective sorting of cells for even appearances, but the quality is not good. The life of the premium is in doubt, but the market analysts monitor the price movement and bring in the manufacturer to correct the quality problem of the product.
